“Overawed by what they do not understand, they mistakenly distrust their own common sense and adopt inappropriate procedures devised by mathematicians with no scientific experience.”
Excellent article by Jessica Weinkle on modeling and climate risk assessment.
“Climate change advocates, media, lawsuits, politicians, and financial interests align to make a terrible muddle out of the science on disasters, economic losses, and climate change. Meanwhile, the public has a real insurance problem.”
I personally believe this is part of the “searching under the light fallacy”. Following the old joke.
It is really hard to get the right data and accurate models to help understanding a specific problem. Not only in “climate”. “Data science” today more often does the inverse: which data is easily accessible; data quality, relevance... not so important. Then we apply “state of the art statistics and — most importantly — AI” and the “scientific”paper and the media headline are finished.
